Fragility of Conservative vote

One of the most significant lessons for the Conservative party from the European election is that it showed the Conservative baseline vote: 27%. This is woefully, woefully short of a majority or even the current level of minority. People did not 'lend' UKIP their vote: they voted UKIP because the Conservative policy on Europe is weak and they want out of Europe.

Our refusal to accept a referendum on membership of the EU is as poor as the Liberal Democrat's refusal to accept a referendum on Lisbon. We should offer a simultaneous referendum on both subjects, campaigning for a "yes" vote to stay in the EU, and a "no" vote on Lisbon. At a stroke, this would go a long way to eliminating the UKIP vote at the next election. It would also highlight that we are not anti-EU which campaigning purely on Lisbon would suggest.

This would not divide the Tory party. It could be presented as a free vote to all but the Conservative front bench. It would cross party lines just as other European votes have done. Announce it, announce it now. Do it quickly after the next election to heal any potential rifts it may cause. It is the single biggest thing my party could do to ensure victory at the next election.

Labour

I'm genuinely intrigued. What actually went through the mind of someone that turned out to vote Labour yesterday? "Oh well - a few national challenges - presentational issues with Brown sure - party of the working man though - basically sound - certainly want them in Government - done a good job on the economy - unemployment's the big killer that's what I care about...." oh, er scratch the last point.

It's not that Labour had a bad election that surprises me, it's that anyone, ANYONE, actually thought "yep, good guys, they're the ones for me."

Maybe there are just some really strong local Labour councillors around whose local effectiveness outweighs the utter car crash of the Labour government. I sort of hope so to restore my faith in the universal franchise.

UKIP and General Election

It's occurred to me that UKIP must be really torn about wanting an early General Election.

If a General Election occurs before the Irish ratify the EU Constitution in the scandalous 'you got it wrong first time try again' re-referendum then the EU Constitution is dead. Assuming the Tories form the next Government then they will have a UK referendum, it will reject the constitution. But if UKIP stand in an early General Election then they will take votes from the Tories and risk a hung Parliament. An early General Election effectively forces UKIP - if they are principled about their convictions - to support the Tories strongly.

Of course, they may not be principled and may stand against the Tories in an early General Election. This will show them in their true colours: as politicians not principlians (to coin a word).

Gordon Brown

The renewed leadership speculation about Gordon Brown is alarming. We need a save Gordon campaign. A new Labour leader will get some kind of a boost, go to the country because they'll have to, and the risk of a hung parliament will increase hugely. Gordon, don't do it. We need you.

MPs' Expenses

Qlikview, a company I've just purchased dashboard technology from for my organisation, have put together a great web based demo application on MPs' expenses. Public institutions could learn from this in terms of providing transparency over how they spend out money.

http://demo.qlikview.com/AJAX/MP%20Expenses%20Analysis/SH05.htm

Elections and Punishing Parties

It seems clear that many voters will punish the major parties by voting for minor parties such as UKIP, the Green Party and the BNP in the European elections. It is, of course, anyone's right to do this. However, I disagree with the principle of using votes negatively like this.

The major parties are bigger than their individual MPs. It appears that most MPs from most parties have not defrauded the taxpayer or sought to profit from the expenses system. It is also true that of people elected under the banner of the three main parties less than 0.1% have abused their expenses. Up and down the country, councillors from all parties are squeaky clean, as are, it seems, at least a substantial proportion of MPs.

Those MPs that have abused the expenses system should be drummed out of their parties immediately. However, we should not punish the majority of honest politicians who are standing on June 4th. It will be particularly harsh to turn out honest politicians through voting for a party whose MEPs are as bad as the worst Tory MPs on expenses (UKIP), or a party whose leader is an overt racist and which has some truly nasty policies (BNP).

MPs' expenses

David Cameron has made good statements on the expenses scandal and demonstrated his skill as a politician. However, his statements do not go far enough because they do not punish individuals who, if they were elected councillors rather than MPs, would be prosecuted.

He needs to state that any Conservative MP who is found to have claimed expenses that were not wholly and exclusively incurred in the execution of their job as an MP is automatically deselected and unable to stand for the Conservative Party again. It doesn't matter who they are, their length of service, or their seniority.

Still, over a week into this scandal, not one MP has been deselected. I fear for the consequences for the Conservative Party at the June 4th elections. 

MPs Expenses

I find it hard to belief that there has been no ministerial or shadow ministerial resignations yet over expenses, nor any deselections or threats of deselections. The Conservatives need to be very, very careful. The latest opinion poll already has them dropping below 40% for the first time in 2009. If David Cameron is not seen to take action then the party will drop further in the polls and people's estimation. 

When people are disillusioned with mainstream parties, they turn to the fringe. The fringe is often extreme. This is what happened in Weimar Germany. Of course, at that time, Germany was in a dire economic recession with people losing their jobs and little prospect of employment, there was gross unfairness in society and crime was rampant; government was unrespected and powerless...

Hhhhmmmm....maybe the parallels between Weimar Germany and Britain now are stretched but they are not that absurd. An apology from David Cameron is inadequate. MPs that have abused taxpayer's money must resign for this to be put behind the Conservative party. The best thing now for the party will be a handful of by-elections in the constituencies of the worst offenders;  that would demonstrate the necessary toughness and re-establish faith in the Conservative Party.

MPs' expenses

Many of the revelations about MPs' expenses are appalling; a number of cabinet ministers should resign in shame at their abuse of taxpayer's money. However, the fuss about Gordon Brown's cleaning expenses is not actually that bad. Gordon Brown was an appallingly bad Chancellor who helped create the economic mess in which he now finds himself as Prime Minister. He is tribally party political to a greater extent than any past Prime Minister. He is short-termist and lacks vision or courage to make the changes the country needs. 

But I do think he is an honest man and the hounding of him over expenses does not help respect for politics in this country. The media should focus on the crooks amongst the politicians and seek to force them from office; it should equally applaud those who were presented with those same opportunities for corruption but did not take them. It is those honest politicians, of all parties, who we want in Parliament at the next election.

Traffic

It might smack a bit of Jon Major's "cones hotline" but I'm convinced a good vote winner in the crowded south-east would be a clear instruction to the police and authorities that after a road accident priority 1 is to look after casualties, and priority 2 is to get traffic moving. Currently getting traffic moving appears to have no priority at all after an accident.

Having again been delayed like thousands and thousands of other people yesterday by a single traffic accident on the A281, it seems clear that the impact on huge numbers of people on journey times from accidents is a significant irritation. It leads to road rage and other accidents as frustrated motorists desperately try to get home.

The US priority is to get traffic moving. Our priority should be to do the same. A small policy perhaps, but one of those policies with a disproportional impact on the electorate I think.

Courage on Expenses

I hope that David Cameron, and all Conservative Associations, show courage and integrity when all MPs expenses are published shortly.

Any current Conservative MP that has claimed for things on expenses which he or she should not have should stand down at the next election. If he or she cannot stand in front of his or her employers (taxpayers) and say "this was legitimate, this was fair", then he or she should be de-selected from standing for the next election; if in a shadow ministerial position they should be asked to resign and sacked if they do not.

This would go a long way to restoring respect for politicians, Conservative politicians at least. It will be no good any MPs saying "everyone was at it", any Conservative politician must stand up for the rights of taxpayers to obtain fair value for their confiscated money. If they do not, then they are not Conservatives in any way I understand.

Budget

The most amazing thing about the budget is how even this Labour government showed no interest in reducing expenditure. In the next two years they will borrow more than every Government in the last three hundred years, and yet they are not even interested in basic reductions in expenditure. 

It shows that they have given up hope for the Labour Government and have therefore decided to sacrifice the future financial prosperity of this country. Their actions can onyl make things so much worse for an incoming Conservative government: the cuts that will have to be made will be painful indeed.

There are the cuts that are so obvious and simply must be made: ID cards, cutting down and time-limiting benefits, cutting quangoes and agencies, moving the public sector to the same pensions system as the private sector. But there are going to need to hard cuts for a Tory Government to make; for example, we cannot spend billions on a replacement for Trident in the current situation.

A List

There's an interesting article on ConservativeHome about what has happened to some that joined the Conservative A List. This was one of the worst supposedly modernising ideas to come out of the Conservative party machine. Picking people with the correct mix of background, ethnic diversity, celebrity and so on and then trying to inject them as MPs was and is a truly dreadful idea.

MPs should be rooted in the locality they represent. Being an MP should not be a trail around the country finding an address that gives you a chance to get elected. Being an MP should be a privilege; representing an area of the country where you have your roots in Parliament. I'm not saying MPs need to be born and have lived in their constituency all their lives, but their home, their roots, should be in the general locality, in the area of their constituency. If that limits capable people who want to be MPs from ever becoming MPs because they are limited to some 10 or 20 constituencies so be it.

One of the ways, one of the many ways, to restore trust in politics is have local people representing their localities. They do this at parish, borough and county level and they should at national level too. Tear up the A list: if these individuals are good enough to be MPs, and I have no doubt many of them are, let them stand for where their roots are.

Labour Attack Dogs

The row about Gordon Brown's advisers sending lies about their opponents on email is completely unsurprising. Labour has never recognised that taxpayer's money is extracted  to fund public services rather than party politics. To become a Labour special adviser is to splash around in a political playpen with other massively highly paid attack dogs spinning and dreaming up lies.

There is no justification for any non-elected individual working at my expense to be party political. The Conservatives have had political attack dogs too in the past. They shouldn't. Anybody who I fund from taxes should either be elected (or a direct support employee of someone elected such as an assistant), or they should be impartial. The Civil Service should be utterly, completely and totally impartial. It should be a dismissable offence for anyone in the Civil Service to promote party political opinions. 

The public sector must have higher, not lower, standards with regard to party politics. The Conservatives must clear out this culture. This means no special advisers under the Conservatives. At all. If the next Conservative Government wishes to spin, fine, then the elected politicians can do the spinning.

Labour is building a Civil Service in the spirit of Goebbels. The next Conservative Government must destroy this culture utterly. It can only do so by ending the employment of spinners and special advisers.

Bob Quick

It is right that Bob Quick should no longer be in post. But I don't think he should have resigned over the unfortunate blunder that nearly compromised the recent arrests of suspected terrorists. This was clearly an unfortunate error, but it was a blunder that was clearly not meant.

He should have resigned over the arrest of an MP who was doing the job an MP is meant to do. This was not a blunder; it was a considered action on Quick's part. It was so clearly absurd to suggest that Damian Green MP was engaged in any form of terrorism, or anything that could remotely be construed as contributing to terrorism, that it shows that his judgement was fundamentally flawed. To send in counter-terrorism officers to arrest Green beggared belief.

So, it is right that he has gone: but not for the unconsidered blunder, rather for the considered misjudgement.

Fractured Society

The appalling injuries inflicted on the two young boys by, it appears, two other young boys bring into focus David Cameron's 'broken society'. I think broken is the wrong word: fractured is a better word. The vast majority of people either actively work for the betterment of their community, or at least seek to avoid harming their community, albeit passively. 

But there is a fault line, a fracture, between that majority and a minority that is without a moral compass. The creation of that moral compass demands education, rehabilitation and a refusal by the state to allow individuals to avoid personal responsibility for their own actions and those of their dependents.

The Labour party has failed in all three areas. Children are allowed to leave school without a clear moral code. Criminals, from an early age, are allowed to get away with their actions and, even if locked up, leave prison only to re-enter it in the majority of cases. The benefits system actively (not even passively, but actively) encourages people to a life of dependency.

The next Conservative Government has some tough decisions in all three areas. If it fails to take them - in its first term - it will fail to address the fractured society and it will have failed this country. They can be addressed: but only by confronting the vocal vested interests that see morality as a grey area, criminality as an inevitable consequence of poverty, and taxpayer- funded benefits as a human right.

Gordon Brown Done Well

The primary cause of the recession was poor risk management of private sector debt, but what's keeping us in recession is confidence: confidence to lend, confidence to borrow, and confidence to buy. More than than anything the G20 summit was about restoring confidence so that individuals, and the businesses they work for, start trading with each other again. The announcements at the G20 are somewhat irrelevant, the reason why I think Gordon Brown did well at this summit was because he got the G20 leaders to agree on a confident statement that should help inspire some confidence.

This does not mean that I think anyone should vote for him. He is the most disastrous prime minister of this age, perhaps any age. He bears responsibility for much of the disastrous situation UK PLC is in because of his failed regulation and his delight in public sector debt. He is the window cleaner who comes along and smashes all your windows, but this week, for the first time, he at least did something that I think helps install new some glass and I'll give him some credit for that. But he's still a disaster who should be slung out at the first opportunity.

Caroline Flint, Europe Minister?

It's not an April Fool. Caroline Flint, the Europe Minister in this bizarre Labour Government, has not read the Lisbon Treaty. Let me repeat. In Parliament, publicly, the Europe Minister stated that she has not read a document that passes significant sovereign powers from this country to Europe. This is so utterly staggering that I find it hard to believe. Surely if there is one person in this country who should read this wretched document it is the Europe Minister?

It is now clear why Labour does not want a referendum. They haven't read what they want us to sign up to, they don't expect us to read it, and they don't care about this country enough to bother what's in it. They want it passed for political reasons regardless of what it may say (which of course as they admit they don't actually know).

Why is she still in her job? What does she think her job actually is? How did this women get into Parliament? How did she achieve high office? I'm certainly not speechless but I am completely incredulous that this has not caused an absolutely massive outcry.

Jacqui Smith and Porn

I have no objection to Jacqui Smith or her nearest and dearest watching adult movies (subject of course to those movies being legal). But I massively, fervently and frothingly-at-the-mouth object to having had money deducted from my salary on pain of imprisonment to fund the sexual habits of her beloved.

I disagree with David Cameron that this is not a resignation offence. In my world, if I expensed such things, I would be fired. From my whole job. And my salary is provided by companies voluntarily doing business with my company. 

I'm only asking that she step down from being responsible for ...er... the entire law and order of this country. I don't suggest that she resigns as an MP. But surely, surely, to take my money on pain of imprisonment to fund the watching of dirty movies is by any normal standards so utterly, utterly wrong that she should go. It worries me that Westminster does not see this. 

There is a growing disbelief about the behaviour of MPs and the Conservatives should come clean (if I can use that expression in this context). They should clear out any ministers of any rank who have abused the expenses system and should go seriously on the attack about this issue. It is not the amount of money involved. It is the principle. And someone, some party simply must stand up for taxpayers who are hard-pressed, who are losing their jobs, who are seeing their pensions being destroyed and who are told that an offence for which they would lose their jobs is not one for a politician to lose theirs.

There is a different standard of conduct required between jobs done by taxpayers, and jobs done for taxpayers. It is surely though a standard that sets a higher bar for the tax-recipients, not a lower bar, not a much, much, much lower bar. Consider that point in Westminster please.

Labour Debt

Listening to Dan Hannan yesterday evening at the South West Surrey Conservatives annual dinner, I was particularly struck by his comment that UK debt will be bigger in 2009 than at the end of World War II.

That is quite extraordinary. After 6 years of fighting Hitler to a standstill, we were less indebted than after 12 years of suffering Brown. And not only has Brown built up this debt, but he has done so without a single parliamentary vote: he has shepherded the mother of Parliaments upstairs and locked her away in a cupboard. At least Nero only fiddled while Rome burned. Brown has filled up the fire-engines with petrol and is hosing fuel over the dying embers of our economy.

When will Brown and Labour (and the media that still support them) realise that you cannot fight a crisis born out of debt with more debt; that today's debt will destroy jobs tomorrow as the productive economy is squeezed still further. Families are facing ruin because of Brown, and more will do so. The thing that makes me despair is that Brown still has 32% in the polls from his carefully bribed and purchased client state, and he only needs a further 4% to secure his majority and continue his destruction of the UK.

And all this from a man whose only electoral mandate is some 20,000 Scots. Even Robert Mugabe felt the need to have the people of Zimbabwe put Xs beside his name to legitimise his rule. But not Gordon.