Lib Dems - a Centre Left Party

The post from Mike Smithson on political betting about the lib dems misdirecting their strategy is interesting. 

The simple fact is that the Lib Dems are a centre-left party, they say they are a centre-left party, their leaders say they are a centre-left party. They do see the Conservatives and not the Government as the party to oppose - you only have to read almost any of the Lib Dem bloggers to see this. You only have to listen to their leadership on the radio or television to see this. They are not equi-distant between the two main parties.

And yet, and yet...so many people in the south-east see them as a sort of softer version of the Tories. They aren't. This country has one major centre-right party and two major centre-left parties. 

For anyone thinking of voting Lib Dem in preference to Labour to switch between the parties is understandable: it's a small journey because they're switching between the two centre-left alternatives. But people need to recognise that the journey from switching from the Tories to the Lib Dems is just as large as the journey from switching from the Tories to Labour.

Latest ICM Poll

The latest ICM poll with the Lib Dems on 22% might be out of line with most polls but it seems to me it's likely the most accurate. The Lib Dems do get a lot of protest votes across the country and it would be strange if they didn't get 20% or a bit more in the next election. Of course it would be mad to think that all of a sudden there are 4 Lib Dems in the country to every 3 a week ago (which is what this poll would mean if taken at face value) but it's reasonable to assume that come election time 1 voter in 5 will vote for them.

The big question is whether a higher Lib Dem vote will be better for the Tories (by letting Tories slip past Labour into first place in some seats) or worse (by enabling Lib Dems to retain their seats from Tories, or even pinch some close Tory/Lib Dem marginals). That of course we cannot know until the election since even UK Polling Report and Political Betting with their outstanding analysis cannot predict tactical voting in the marginals and the impact of local issues.