Sunday, 8 February 2009

Latest ICM Poll

The latest ICM poll with the Lib Dems on 22% might be out of line with most polls but it seems to me it's likely the most accurate. The Lib Dems do get a lot of protest votes across the country and it would be strange if they didn't get 20% or a bit more in the next election. Of course it would be mad to think that all of a sudden there are 4 Lib Dems in the country to every 3 a week ago (which is what this poll would mean if taken at face value) but it's reasonable to assume that come election time 1 voter in 5 will vote for them.

The big question is whether a higher Lib Dem vote will be better for the Tories (by letting Tories slip past Labour into first place in some seats) or worse (by enabling Lib Dems to retain their seats from Tories, or even pinch some close Tory/Lib Dem marginals). That of course we cannot know until the election since even UK Polling Report and Political Betting with their outstanding analysis cannot predict tactical voting in the marginals and the impact of local issues.

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